Via the U.K. Telegraph Online - Ukraine offers satellite defence co-operation with Europe and US:
Just hours before Mr Medvedev put his signature to the ceasefire deal, Russian forces blew up a Georgian railway bridge on the main line west of the capital, Tbilisi, an act that critics interpreted as a malacious attempt to cripple the country's infrastructure. Moscow at first issued a denial, but television footage shot by the Reuters news agency clearly showed the bridge's twisted remains.
The Russians are clearly playing for keeps here, and it will be interesting to see how seriously they take the collective U.S. / E.U. / Former Soviet Satellite response. History tells us that, until fairly recently anyway, the West was NOT to be taken too seriously - that its rhetoric was largely hollow, and its threats largely empty. Now enough blood has been spilled in places like Iraq and Afghanistan to give some potential adversaries pause. But the Russians cannot be allowed to use the Georgian incursion as a sort of "Caesar Crosses the Rhine" moment. Only very strong retaliation will see to it that is not the case. But is such a resonse even possible?
The layers of potential response are interesting in and of themselves. The former Soviet-bloc states have some room to maneuver, and have a very existential reason to do so. And so Poland and Ukraine move quickly to join the U.S.-led missile shield, as they should. Expect more such states to follow suit.
Soliciting a strong response from the Europeans, however, is a much more difficult task. Russia is a key supplier of energy resources to the European continent, and any economic sanctions against Russia will cause acute pain throughout the region during a time of particularly weak economic performance. So it is questionable whether the E.U. will be able to muster the political muscle to respond in a fashion befitting the situation. Nick Sarkozy played what role he could in securing a peace, but expecting more from him or the rest of the Union with respect to maintaining it seems aggressive. And really, what kind of support could the Euros provide to a Baltic or Central-Asian state under siege? The Russians pose a military threat far more powerful than any defense the E.U. member nations could call to the aid of a distressed state.
And what of the U.S.? Here, the Emperor truly seems to have no clothes. Military commanders admit, openly and loudly, to being surprised by the speed and nature of the Russian incursion, as well as to a complete inability to counter the advance should the use of force have been warranted. How's that for backing your President's words with the full power of the most awesome military force the world has ever seen? And so the President gives Vladimir Putin an angry look and some harsh words between patting a women's beach volleyball player's butt and watching Michael Phelps carry out an annihilation of a different sort in Beijing, receiving a look back from the Former KGB operative that would have turned Medusa to stone. And a couple of days later, more words about the international community's stance on South Ossetia and Abkhazia being a part of Georgia. (I'm sure the Georgians living under the barrells of Russian AK's would have something to say about that.) But, what? Really, is there anything of great substance the U.S. can do in retaliation?
Perhaps the near-term answer is no. Cosmetically, the addition of as many Russian border states as possible to the missile shield, as well as the provision of greater weapons, logisitical and training support to those states could provide a measure of deterence. And perhaps those kinds of measures will be enough to provide a peaceful bridge to long-term solutions.
Whatever the case, the precariousness that comes with Russia's re-assertion of its military strength must be taken extremely seriously. Unless they want to see their boys engaged in a protracted conflict with just the kind of monolithic nuclear threat they have spent the last decade trying so desperately to pronounce dead, American voters had better take note.
